全球技术史视野下的火器革命与文明动力机制

Firearm Revolution and Civilization Dynamic Mechanism from the Perspective of Global Technology History

技术革命对于国家而言并非意味着简单的效率提升,更关联着随之而来的政治和社会变迁,其文明动力机制存在复杂的多重系统效应。以18世纪前后西欧从火绳枪到燧发枪的技术改进为例,火器技术革命对于西欧的现代化构成了三方面的文明动力机制:第一,标准化生产和训练提升了国家的军事实力,使得建立常备军成为在战争中获胜的必要因素;第二,常备军的建立削弱了传统的封建结构和雇佣兵制度,在军事、组织和财政等层面强化了国家的中央权威;第三,火器革命改变了国家间的攻防成本,导致战争频率上升并加重了财政危机,从而增加了传统贵族阻碍制度变革的筹码。普鲁士的初始条件最有利于发挥技术革命带来的正外部性,同时又能有效避免其负外部性,因此最大限度地获益。而同时期的其他国家,无论是西欧的法国、西班牙和奥地利,还是东亚的清帝国,都因为缺乏有利的政治社会条件或足够的外部压力,无法将技术革命的红利最有效地转化为文明现代化的动力。近代国家在技术革命中的不同命运,为思考技术革命与国家兴衰之间复杂的文明动力机制提供了现代性启示。

Technological revolution does not mean simple efficiency improvement for a country, but is more related to the subsequent political and social changes. Therefore, there are multiple system effects in the mechanism of civilization dynamics of technological revolution. Taking the improvement of firearms technology in Western Europe in the 18th century as an example, the revolution of firearms technology affected the modernization of Western Europe in three aspects. First, standardized production and training enhanced military strength which made the establishment of a standing army necessary for winning the war. Second, the establishment of the standing army weakened the traditional feudal structure and strengthened the central authority of the state. Third, the firearm revolution led to the increase in the frequency of war and the subsequent financial crisis, which became a bargaining chip for the traditional aristocracy to resist the modernization reform. Prussia benefited most from the firearm revolution because its initial conditions helped to absorb the positive externalities of the technological revolution and avoid its negative externalities. On the contrary, neither France, Spain, Austria nor the Qing Empire could effectively promote the modernization process with the help of the technological revolution. The different destinies of modern countries after the firearm revolution can bring enlightenment to the discovery of the complex mechanism between the technological revolution and the rise and fall of great powers.