老龄化民粹主义:欧美的现实与中国的挑战

Population Aging and Populist Age:Challenges and Causes

所有这些标签——无论是“新鲜”“极端”,还是“激进”,都往往让人想到积极进取的年轻人,然而,在西方世界最近几次重大政治事件中,老年人却是民粹主义阵营最积极的参与者和支持者。当前西方的民粹主义和逆全球化潮流是我国在“双循环”新发展格局下面临的重要外部挑战。本文力图揭示当代西方民粹主义和逆全球化浪潮背后的社会人口因素,特别是被学界忽略的人口老龄化在当中扮演的重要角色。

Population aging has given rise to the current populist surge through two mechanisms. First, it means an increasing share in the society of elderly people, whose nostalgia for traditional values made them particularly attracted to populists who also seek to reshape, if not thwart, globalization. Secondly, population aging has led to an increase in labor costs, which has encouraged the process of industrial automation, increased the unemployment risks, especially for middle-aged and above workers in the manufacturing sector. Those workers are likely to support populism which promises to promote economic nationalism to reduce social risks in domestic markets.