企业财务风险与产业结构调整的循证决策研究

Corporate Financial Risk and the Evidence-based Policy Making of Industrial Restructuring Regulation

在产业结构调整决策过程中,政策制定者会如何观察、了解、调研微观企业财务风险水平及其在产业中的衍化效应,并以此作为政策制定的依据。以政策科学中的循证决策理论为基本研究范式,使用2001-2017年中国上市公司数据和政策文本进行中微观两层决策证据的影响效应检验。研究发现,微观企业能够通过两条路径影响其所在产业的产业结构调整政策:一是单个企业的财务风险会在产业中形成“竞争效应”,在产品需求函数的主要作用下降低整个产业的财务风险,从而降低该产业受到产业结构调整政策规制的可能性;二是单个企业财务风险的显现能够提高产业集中度、提高资源配置效率,从而减少“有形的手”对市场的介入。文中提供的经验证据体现了市场机制和政府机制在风险管控与效率提升方面的互补效应。

This paper studies whether the policy makers will observe, understand, and investigate the micro-level financial risk level and its industrial derivative effect in the process of industrial restructuring decision-making. This paper takes the Evidence-based Decision theory in policy science as the research paradigm, and uses the data of Chinese listed companies from 2001 to 2017 to test the impact of the micro and meso-level decision-making evidence. This study shows that when formulating industrial restructuring policies, the government will observe the financial performance of micro-enterprises as evidence for decision-making. At the meso level, if the corporate financial risk can reduce the financial risk of the entire industry or increase the concentration of the industry, then the possibility of the industry itself being regulated by the industrial restructuring policy will be reduced. This reflects the complementary effects of market mechanisms and government mechanisms in risk management and efficiency improvement.