浙江省科技创新与水资源环境耦合协调度分析与预测

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON COUPLING COORDINATION BETWEEN TECHNICAL INNOVATION AND WATER RESOURCES ENVIRONMENT IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

探究浙江省科技创新和水资源环境耦合协调关系,预测两者的耦合协调趋势,为实现浙江省科技绿色发展、水资源环境保护和高质量发展目标提供参考。基于2010—2019年浙江省11个城市科技创新和水资源环境相关数据,建立综合指标评价体系,利用熵值法、层次分析法和最小相对信息熵原理确定各指标权重,分别计算科技创新系统和水资源环境系统的综合评价值,并分析其变化情况。运用耦合协调度模型计算并分析两系统的耦合协调度,最后采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测未来6年的协调度发展趋势。研究发现:(1)2019年浙江省科技创新与水资源环境系统发展水平分别为0.3981和0.4587,年均增速分别为14.62%和3.94%,相比水资源环境,科技创新总体水平更低,但其发展速度更快,同时两个系统均存在地区差异;(2)11个城市科技创新与水资源环境的耦合协调关系表现出上升态势,浙江省整体耦合协调度由从0.4113上升至0.6368,2010—2013年为濒临失调,2014—2017年为勉强协调,2018—2019年实现初级协调;预测结果显示6年后科技创新和水资源环境系统处于良好协调阶段,但年均增速放缓,由4.98%下降至4.58%;(3)浙江省科技创新与水资源环境的耦合协调度在空间上表现出北高南低、东高西低的格局,而且在未来6年内未发生显著变化。2010—2019年浙江省高度重视科技创新工作,优化水资源环境,促进了科技创新与水资源环境的协同发展,但11个城市之间存在空间差异,未来科技创新和水资源环境仍将朝着更加协调的方向发展。基于此,提出了增强科技创新和改善水资源环境、预防未来耦合协调度增速放缓、缩小地区差异等政策建议,以期更好地实现科技创新与水资源环境的协调发展。

This paper explores the coupling coordination between technical innovation and water resources environment in Zhejiang province,and forecasts its tendency so as to provide references for Zhejiang’s green development,water resources environmental protection and high-quality development based on Zhejiang’s 11 cities’technical innovation and water resources data from 2010 to 2019.A comprehensive evaluation index system is established with its indexes’weights determined via entropy,AHP and minimum relative information entropy,which is used to estimate the comprehensive evaluation values of technical innovation system and water resources environment system.Coupling coordination model is used to calculate the coupling coordination of the two systems.GM(1,1)model is employed to forecast the coordination tendency in the next six years.The development levels of Zhejiang’s technical innovation system and water resources system in 2019 are 0.3981 and 0.4587 with an annual increasing rate 14.62%and 3.94%.Technical innovation has a faster developing rate.The two systems vary with regions.The coupling coordination shows an increasing trend with Zhejiang’s overall coupling coordination rising from 0.4113 to 0.6368,near disordered from 2010 to 2013,fairly ordered from 2014 to 2017,preliminarily ordered from 2018 to 2019,forecasted to be well ordered in next six years with a lagging annual increasing rate from 4.98%to 4.58%.The coupling coordination shows geographically a pattern of north-high-south-low,east-high-west-low,with forecasted no outstanding changes in next six years.From 2010 to 2019,Zhejiang pays much attention to technical innovation,optimizes water resources environment,and promotes a collaborative development between technical innovation and water resources environment,but spatial differences exist.This paper presents suggestions on boosting technical innovation,improving water resources environment,preventing a lagging coupling coordination,and reducing regional variance so as to reach a better coordinated development between technical innovation and water resources environment.