周期性与终结性:美国政治极化的两种论断

Periodicity and Finality: Two Propositions of American Political Polarization

美国近期的政治极化现象引人瞩目。有人认为,这是美国衰落、衰颓的标志。极而言之,更有美国强势国运即将终了的看法。由此甚至引出了美国衰落、中国崛起的相形而在的结论。稍加分析可知,这些结论是建立在误判基础上的。误判既有事实上的,也有理论上的。从两者关联的角度讲,美国今天的政治极化,是现代国家运行的政治周期性表现,而不是美国政治的终结性标志。至于由此引导出来的中美政治结论,就更是有因果疏离之嫌。如同所有现代国家一样,美国尚未走入穷途末路,但它确实遭遇了政治周期的低潮期、转型期,这是政治常态与极化从前一端点向后一端点的变化。走向可能有二:如能克服困难,那就会从极化重回常态,这是现代国家政治运转开放型周期的呈现;如果处置不当,就会呈现给世人一个漫长的衰颓曲线,但这不构成别国可取而代之的自证理由。

The recent phenomenon of political polarization in the United States has attracted people’s attention. Some people believe that this is a sign of the decline of the United States and further posit that the strong national fate of the United States is coming to an end. This even leads to the conclusion that the decline of the United States and the rise of China are in shape. A simple analysis could show that these conclusions are based on misjudgments. There are both factual and theoretical misjudgments.From the perspective of the relationship between the two, today’s political polarization in the United States is the political cyclical performance of the operation of modern countries, not a sign of the termination of American politics. As for the inferred political conclusion between China and the United States, it is suspected of causal alienation. Like all modern countries, the United States has not yet come to a dead end, but it has indeed encountered a low tide and a transitional period of political cycle, which is the change of political normal and polarization from the front end to the back end. There may be two trends: if difficulties overcome, it is possible to return to normal away from polarization, which is the presentation of the open cycle of political operation in modern countries;if not handled properly, a long decline curve will be presented to the world, but this does not constitute a self-justification as to whether other countries can replace it.