考虑故障概率和净负荷不确定性的鲁棒随机备用优化

Robust-stochastic Reserve Optimization Considering Uncertainties of Failure Probability and Net Load

备用的配置是为了应对系统中可能的设备故障、负荷与可再生能源出力的不确定性。系统配置充足的备用是保证电力系统安全经济运行的必要条件。在传统的备用决策方法中,不同程度上忽略了故障概率的不确定性。为此提出了一种统筹考虑设备故障概率和净负荷不确定性的备用优化模型。其中,风电与负荷造成的净负荷不确定性以及设备故障概率不确定性统一采用区间描述,并采用对偶理论、上境界转化和KKT(Karush-Kuhn-Tucker)条件等方法进行求解。最后,基于IEEE-RTS 24节点系统验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。

The configuration of the reserve is to deal with the uncertainties of possible equipment failures, loads and renewable energy output in the power system. The provision of the adequate reserve for systems is a necessary condition to ensure the safe and economical operation of power systems. In the traditional reserve decision-making methods, the uncertainty of failure probability is ignored in some degrees. Therefore, a robust-stochastic reserve optimization model is proposed to consider the failure probability of equipment and the uncertainty of net load simultaneously. In this model, the net load uncertainty and equipment failure probability uncertainty caused by wind power and load are uniformly described by intervals. And the dual theory, epigraph reformulation and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT) conditions are adopted to solve the model. Finally, the effectiveness and validity of the proposed method are verified on the IEEE-RTS 24-bus system.