长江经济带耕地压力时空演变规律与趋势

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Trend of Cultivated Land Pressure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

长江经济带作为我国经济发展核心区和重要农业生产基地,在快速城镇化和工业化进程中,耕地资源承载负荷大、压力显著,面临巨大风险和挑战。基于标准耕地系数修正的压力指数模型分析长江经济带1987~2017年耕地资源情况,多时空尺度反映变化态势,并利用预测模型测算耕地压力未来变化趋势。结果表明:(1)长江经济带耕地压力时间序列呈现倒“V”型分布,2003年达到压力峰值后缓慢下降;空间格局呈现出“整体稳定、局部动荡”基本态势,压力重心向东迁移;(2)区域耕地压力异质性明显,长江上游主要受恶劣的耕种条件和频发的自然灾害影响,长江下游主要受快速城镇化影响,分布格局上表现出“下游急速上升,中游稳步下降,上游波动起伏”的局面;(3)未来5年(十四五期间)长江经济带耕地压力并未得到缓解,且有逐年增长的势头,对大保护战略构成一定挑战,需要引起有关决策部门重视。

As the core area of China’s economic development and an important agricultural production base, the Yangtze River Economic Belt is confronted with great risks and challenges in the process of rapid urbanization and industrialization, with large load and significant pressure of cultivated land resources. Based on the cultivated land pressure index model modified by the standard cultivated land coefficient, this paper analyzes the cultivated land resources situation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1987 to 2017, reflects the changing trend of the cultivated land pressure with multiple spatial and temporal scales, and calculates the future changing trend of the cultivated land pressure by using the prediction model.The results show that :(1) The time series of cultivated land pressure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt presents an inverted "V" type distribution, and decreases slowly after reaching the peak pressure in 2003;The spatial pattern presents the basic situation of "overall stability and local turbulence", and the pressure center of gravity moves to the east.(2) The regional cultivated land pressure is obviously heterogeneous. The upper reaches of the Yangtze River are mainly affected by poor farming conditions and frequent natural disasters, while the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are mainly affected by rapid urbanization. The distribution pattern shows the situation of "rapid rise in the lower reaches, steady decline in the middle reaches and fluctuation in the upper reaches".(3) During the 14 th five-year Plan period, the cultivated land pressure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has not been alleviated, and has a momentum of increasing year by year, which poses a certain challenge to the great protection strategy and needs to be taken seriously by relevant decision-making departments.