“一带一路”沿线国家生态承载力评估

Assessing the Ecological Carrying Capacity of Countries along the Belt and Road

"一带一路"倡议是中国在新时期推动区域可持续发展的关键倡议。由于"一带一路"沿线国家具有生态环境脆弱与经济发展对生态资源依赖性强的双重特征,"一带一路"倡议目标的实现面临着巨大的挑战。生态承载力作为区域可持续发展能力评价的重要指标,本研究从生态资源供给与消耗关系角度出发,通过植被净初级生产力数据测算生态资源供给能力,利用联合国粮农组织提供的农业生产与贸易数据测算生态资源消耗水平,进而开展2017年"一带一路"沿线国家生态承载力与生态承载状态评估,结果表明:(1)"一带一路"沿线国家生态承载力总量为110.97亿人,与常住人口相比,生态系统尚有64.33亿人的承载空间,生态承载力处于富富有余状态。(2)"一带一路"沿线区域间和国家间生态承载状态呈两极分化现象:在65个国家中,有40个国家生态承载力处于富富有余状态,主要分布在东南亚和中东欧地区,有19个国家生态承载力处于严重超载状态,主要分布在西亚/中东地区。(3)尽管沿线国家生态系统尚有较大的承载空间,但结合国际呼吁的生态保护标准与未来沿线国家人口与经济发展预测结果来看,"一带一路"倡议实施过程中生态保护问题依然严峻;但以构建新的国际贸易网络为核心内容的"一带一路"倡议,有助于解决沿线国家由于生态资源供给与消耗空间不匹配的问题,为沿线国家协调生态保护与社会需求的矛盾提供新的契机。

The Belt and Road Initiative(B&R Initiative)is a crucial strategy to promote regional sustainable development in the new era.However,the realization of the B&R Initiative faces huge challenges because of the dual characteristics of a fragile eco-environment and strong dependence on ecological resources for economic development in the Belt and Road(B&R)countries.The ecological carrying capacity(ECC)is a crucial indicator for evaluating regional sustainable development.From the perspective of the relationship between the supply and consumption of ecological resources,this study uses net primary productivity data to measure the supply capacity of ecological resources,and it uses the agricultural production and trade data provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to measure the level of ecological resource consumption.These supply and consumption data are then used to assess the ECC and ecological carrying status(ECS)of the B&R countries in 2017.The results show that:(1)The ECC of the B&R is 11.097 billion people;the ecosystem can also support 6.433 billion people,and the ECC is in a state of rich and surplus.(2)The ECS is polarized among the regions and countries along the B&R.Of the 65 countries,the ECC of 40 countries is in a rich and surplus state,mainly in Mid-East Europe and Southeast Asia,while the ECC of 19 countries is in severe overload,mainly in West Asia/Middle East.(3)Although the ecosystems still have ample carrying space in countries along the B&R,ecological protection is still facing enormous challenges during the implementation of the B&R Initiative combined with the internationally recognized ecological protection standards as well as the forecasts of the population and economic development.As the core content of building a new international trade network,the B&R Initiative will help to solve the spatial mismatch between the supply and consumption of ecological resources,which provides a new opportunity to coordinate the contradiction between the ecological protection and social demands of the B&R countries.