年老必然力衰吗:基于GMM对老年人生活自理能力变化轨迹的研究

Does the Elderly Inevitably Decline:Research on the Trajectories of Elderly’s Activity of Daily Living Based on GMM

人口老龄化导致失能人数激增,人类寿命延长也逐渐改变着个体生活自理能力的变化进程,在此背景下,对老年人生活自理能力变化轨迹及其相关因素的探讨就成为重要的研究问题。基于CLHLS数据运用增长混合模型对5次追踪调查中老年人生活自理能力变化的潜在类别进行探索研究,并分析身心健康、自评健康与潜类别结果的关系。研究发现,老年人生活自理能力的变化轨迹存在明显的异质性,可分为初始水平低且随时间推移继续下降的缓慢恶化组,初始水平高但随时间快速降低的急速下降组和始终稳定在较高水平的保持稳定组三个潜类别组。年龄增加或性别为女性都是生活自理能力下降的风险因素,从健康状况来看,自评健康差、曾经患重病或心理健康水平低都会影响老年人生活自理能力的变化轨迹,尤其会增加其进入缓慢恶化组的几率。

The aging of the population has led to a rapid increase in the number of disabled people,and the prolongation of human life has gradually changed the change process of individual self-care ability.Under this background,it has become an important research question to explore the trajectories and causes of the elderly self-care ability.Based on CLHLS data,the growth mixture modeling was used to explore the potential categories of changes in the self-care ability of the elderly in five follow-up surveys,and to analyze the relationship between physical and mental health,self-rated health and the results of potential categories.The study found that there is obvious heterogeneity in the change trajectory of the elderly’s self-care ability,which can be divided into a slow deterioration group with a low initial level and continue to decline over time,a rapid decline group with a high initial level but rapid decline over time,and a consistently stable group.Age and gender are risk factors for worse self-care ability.From the perspective of health status,poor self-rated health,severe illness or low mental health will affect the change trajectory of elderly self-care ability,especially increase the chance of entering the slow deterioration group.