红柳江区域陆地水储量变化及其驱动因素分析

Analysis of terrestrial water storage change and its driving factors of Hongliu River region

本文利用CSR-RL06和Tongji-Grace2018时变重力场模型反演了2003年1月—2016年12月红柳江区域陆地水储量变化,并联合降水、蒸散、径流和人类活动耗水等多源数据建立了区域水量平衡方程,定量评估了该区域陆地水储量变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:①考虑人类活动耗水为区域陆地水储量输出项时,由水量平衡方程闭合差计算的均方根误差降低了39%。②气象水文因素贡献率仅于2009、2011和2016年为负,其均值为-22.5%,其余年份正贡献率均值为47.7%;人类活动耗水贡献率始终为负,其均值为-34.8%。③龙滩水库蓄水变化与该区域陆地水储量变化相关系数为0.66,均存在一年和两年主周期信号。

The terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)from January 2003 to December 2016 over the Hongliu River region(HLRR)is derived from the CSR-RL06 and Tongji-Grace2018 time-variable gravity field models.In addition,the major influencing factors of the regional TWSC are quantified via the water balance equations using precipitation,evapotranspiration,runoff,and human-induced water consumption.The results show that:①When the water consumption is considered,the root-mean-square error of the water balance is reduced by 39%.②The annual positive average contribution rate of meteorological and hydrological factors to the HLRR TWSC is 47.7%except for 2009,2011 and 2016 with the mean negative contribution rate of-22.5%,while the annual negative average contribution rate of the human-related water consumption is-34.8%.③The correlation coefficient between water storage changes in the Longtan Reservoir and the TWSC over the Hongliu River region is 0.66,and there are one-year and two-year main cycle signals.