成渝地区工业大气污染物排放的时空演化格局及关键驱动因素

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Key Driving Forces of Industrial Air Pollutant Discharge in Chengdu-Chongqing Region

为摸清成渝地区工业大气污染的时空变化规律和关键影响因素,构建了2013—2019年成渝地区社会经济和工业大气污染物排放数据库,运用空间自相关分析和冷热点分析方法,解析了工业大气污染物排放的时空演化格局,并采用对数平均迪氏(LMDI)分解模型探究关键驱动因素.结果显示:①成渝地区工业大气污染物排放整体呈明显下降趋势,高排放城市减少,低排放城市增多,高排放区由大面积圈层式分布逐渐向成都平原经济区南部区域和川南经济区北部区域零星式分布转变.②成渝地区工业大气污染物排放呈现明显的空间集聚状态,空间溢出效应显著,且空间关联程度呈增大趋势.工业大气污染物排放的空间分布趋于极化,且呈现明显的“西热-东冷”分异格局.③经济发展始终是不同阶段工业大气污染物排放增量的首要驱动因素,生产技术进步与能源利用效率提升是减排的主要控制因素,高排放-低减排城市需注重工业生产技术和末端治理技术的提升.产业结构调整对减排的贡献受区域产业发展政策的影响,工业内部结构效应对大气污染物的排放具有促进作用,与近年来钢铁、水泥、玻璃、陶瓷等传统重工业行业在工业增加值中的比重逐年提升有关.

In order to map the spatial and temporal patterns and key influencing factors of industrial air pollution,a database of industrial air pollution discharge and socio-economic parameters in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region from 2013 to 2019 was established.The spatialtemporal evolution pattern of industrial air pollutant was analyzed based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis and Getis-Ord Gi*,then the key driving forces were explored by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method(LMDI).The results show that:(1)From 2013 to 2019,the discharge of industrial air pollutions in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region showed a downward trend,with a decrease in high emission cities and an increase in low emission cities.The spatial pattern of high air pollutant discharge areas changed greatly from continuous layertype to sporadic distribution.(2)The obvious spatial agglomeration of industrial air pollution discharge was observed,the spatial association effects were significant,and the degree of spatial correlation increased in Chengdu-Chongqing Region.Moreover,the spatial distribution of industrial air pollutant discharge was polarized,and the hotspots were concentrated in the west of Chengdu-Chongqing Region,but cold spots were in the east.(3)Economic development is the primary driving factor,leading to the increase of industrial air pollutant discharge at different stages,and the progress of production technology and the improvement of energy utilization efficiency were the main factors for the pollutant discharge reduction.The high emission and low emission reduction zones need to focus on the development of industrial production technology and terminal control technology.The contribution of industrial structure adjustment to emission reduction was affected by regional industrial development policies,and the industrial internal structure has a promoting effect on the emission of air pollutants,which is related to the increase in the proportion of traditional heavy industry in the industrial added value in recent years.