谁的发展融资更能改善非洲的经济和生活条件

Whose Development Finance Better Improves African Economic and Living Conditions?

随着中国发展融资的快速增长和空间数据积累,围绕其影响的实证研究正在兴起。利用地理空间分析方法,可将中国对非洲31国基础设施和社会经济服务发展项目信息与“非洲晴雨表”第二轮、第五轮社会调查受访者信息相匹配,从而精细化探究相关项目如何影响居住在附近的非洲民众对国家经济状况和个人生活条件变化的感受。研究显示,中国项目对居住在附近的非洲民众对国家经济状况和个人生活条件变化的感受均有显著正向影响,同一时期世界银行相关项目对居住在附近的非洲民众的相关感受则总体呈现显著负向效应或效应不显著。这一效果差异与中西方发展融资理念和方向不同有关,在很大程度上体现了“民生援助”与“民主援助”模式的差异。进一步研究不同类别的项目对不同背景人群的影响可为完善发展融资政策提供启示。尽管经济基础设施与服务项目兴起被视为中国发展融资的重要特征,但医疗、教育等传统社会基础设施与服务项目同样会对当地民众感知国计民生的改善产生重要而积极的影响。未来落实在非发展融资合作时可进一步增强面向女性和农村群体的基础设施与社会经济服务,全面推动受援地的平衡发展与民生改善。

With the fast growth and spatial data accumulation of Chinese development finance,empirical studies on its impact are emerging. Conducting geospatial analysis-by geographically matching the dataset of Chinese social and economic infrastructure and services development projects in 31 African countries with the geo-referenced information of respondents from Afrobarometer Round 2 and Round 5 surveys-helps reveal how the presence of Chinese projects influences local attitudes towards national economic and individual living conditions. The empirical results suggest that living near an existing Chinese project induces a positive view on national economic and individual living conditions within local population. Same identification strategy is applied to the geodataset of World Bank social and economic infrastructure and services development projects,and negative or insignificant effect is demonstrated. These different effects are related to different concepts and nature of Chinese and World Bank projects, which prioritize civil livelihood and institution-building respectively. Findings from heterogenous analysis of different projects and different local groups could shed lights on improving development finance policies. While economic infrastructural and services projects are perceived as an emerging feature of Chinese development finance,traditional social sector projects including healthcare and education continue to exert significantly positive impacts on local attitudes towards economic and living conditions. In the future, resources of development finance could lean more towards female and rural groups for more balanced local development.