土地利用对碳排放影响的作用机制和传导路径分析--基于结构方程模型的实证检验

Analysis on the Mechanism and Transmission Path of the Impact of Land Use on Carbon Emissions:Empirical Test Based on Structural Equation Model

研究目的:探索土地利用对碳排放影响的作用机制和传导路径,为制定土地调控碳减排政策体系提供科学依据,服务于碳中和目标。研究方法:理论框架构建法与结构方程模型相结合。研究结果:(1)农地非农化、土地出让市场化和土地开发强度是作为土地利用对碳排放影响的有效观测变量,我国省际层面土地利用对碳排放影响的总效应、直接效应和间接效应均表现为促进作用,总效应表现为土地利用水平提升1个单位,将促进碳排放增加0.159个标准单位,间接效应明显大于直接效应。(2)土地利用通过城市化、产业结构和经济增长三条路径对碳排放产生间接影响,其中,通过城市化和经济增长对碳排放表现为促进效应,影响大小分别为0.173和0.058个标准单位,通过产业结构对碳排放表现为抑制效应,影响大小为0.101个标准单位。研究结论:建立土地调控碳减排政策体系是推动碳中和目标实现的一项可行的重要手段,一方面可通过国土空间优化、生态红线划定和自然保护地整合等手段减少土地利用对碳排放的直接影响,另一方面可通过调控土地利用方式、规模、强度、结构等减少土地利用对碳排放的间接促进影响,激发土地利用的正向连锁效应。

The purposes of this paper are to clarify the mechanism and transmission path of the impacts of land use on carbon emissions,and to provide a scientific basis for formulating land regulation carbon emission reduction policy system and serve the goal of carbon neutrality.The methods of the combination of theoretical framework construction and structural equation model were employed.The results show that:1)farmland conversion,land marketization and land development intensity are the effective observation variables for the impacts of land use on carbon emissions.The total effect is manifested as an increase in land use level by 1 unit,which will promote an increase of 0.159 standard units in carbon emissions,and the indirect effect is significantly greater than the direct effect.2)Land use has an indirect impact on carbon emissions through urbanization,industrial structure and economic growth.Urbanization and economic growth have a promoting effect on carbon emissions,up to 0.173 and 0.058 standard units,respectively,while the industrial structure has a restraining effect on carbon emissions,with 0.101 standard units impact size.In conclusion,establishing a land regulation and carbon emission reduction policy system is a feasible and important way to promote the realization of the carbon neutral goal.On the one hand,the direct impact of land use on carbon emissions can be reduced by the means of land space optimization,ecological redline delineation and integration of nature reserves.On the other hand,we can reduce the indirect impact of land use on carbon emissions by regulating the way,scale,intensity and structure of land use,to stimulate the positive chain effect of land use.