论农业政策的演进逻辑——兼论中国农业转型的关键问题与潜在风险

The Evolution Logic of Agricultural Policy: On the Key Problems and Potential Risks of China’s Agricultural Transformation

本文从国家利益和国家战略出发构建了一个三层分析框架,用来阐释后发国家农业发展和政策演进的一般规律。农业对国家利益的核心贡献包括三类:为工业提供原始积累、粮食安全、经济发展和社会稳定。三类贡献发生阶段性变化的规律构成了农业政策演进的内在逻辑。中国农业政策演进历程的特殊性在于,粮食安全贡献的重要性并未随着工业化的推进而下降,在工农关系进入转折期以后甚至还存在上升趋势。由此,中国在进入以工补农阶段将近20年后的今天同时面临着“农业不强”和“农民不富”的双重难题。当前中国农业转型的方向是在保证粮食安全和农村社会稳定的前提下实现组织形式由小农经营向适度规模经营转变。转型过程中的关键问题是粮食安全的战略定位和适度规模经营的实现方式。转型面临的潜在风险是资本快速向农业生产环节渗透导致小农户的分化加剧。

This article constructs a three-tier analysis framework to explain the general law of agricultural development and policy evolution in late-developing countries. The core contribution of agriculture to national interests includes three categories: providing primitive accumulation for industry, food security, and social stability. The law of contribution change leads to the internal logic of the agricultural policy evolution. The particularity of China’s agricultural policy evolution is that the importance of the contribution of food security has not declined in the process of industrialization, and there is even an upward trend in the transition period. Today,nearly 20 years after China entered the stage of supporting agriculture by industry, China is still facing the dual problems of "agriculture is not strong" and "farmers are not rich". At present, the direction of China’s agricultural reform is to realize the organizational transformation from small-scale operation to moderate scale operation on the premise of ensuring food security and rural social stability. The key issues in the process of transformation are the strategic orientation of food security and the realization approach of moderate scale operation. The potential risk is that the rapid infiltration of capital into agricultural production leads to intensified differentiation of small farmers.