乡村振兴视角下的农村劳动力回流弹性估计——基于空间断点回归的研究

Estimation of Return Elasticity of Rural Labor Force from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization: Evidence Based on Spatial Discontinuity Design

产业兴旺是乡村振兴的重点。本文基于2015-2019年河南省新县各行政村经济活动发生的随机差异性变化,以农村生产性用电量指标度量村级经济活动强度,构造准自然实验,利用村边界的外生性以及“断头路”导致的劳动力需求冲击的非连续性,采用空间断点回归的方法,估算了农村劳动力的回流弹性。本文发现:在当前农村经济活动增长幅度下,男性劳动力的流动选择没有显著变化,中青年女性劳动力留在本地工作的概率显著提高,回流弹性为0.28,原因在于女性劳动力留在当地的非经济收益更高。进一步分析表明,女性劳动力回流损失了家庭收入(相比基础年份,样本期内处理组家庭年人均自有收入的总增长量比控制组低6576元),但同时也创造了更大的非经济收益(处理组学生中考成绩平均比控制组高108分)。异质性分析结果显示,非经济收益越大的家庭,中青年女性的回流概率越大,回流弹性也越大。本文的发现为乡村振兴提供了一定启示。

Based on the random variation of economic activities of administrative villages in Xinxian County, Henan Province from 2015 to 2019, this article uses the rural productive power consumption index to measure the intensity of village level economic activities and constructs a quasi-natural experiment in rural China. It uses the externality of village boundary and the discontinuity of labor demand impact caused by “broken roads” and adopts the method of spatial breakpoint regression. The return elasticity of rural labor force is estimated. This study finds that the mobility choice of male labor force has not changed significantly, the probability of young and middle-aged female labor force staying in local work has increased significantly, and the return elasticity is 0.28, because the non-economic income of female labor force is higher. Further analysis shows that the return of female labor force has lost family income(compared with the base year, the total growth of annual per capita self-owned income of the treatment group is 6576 Yuan),but has also created greater non-economic benefits(the average test scores of students in the treatment group are 108 points higher than those in the control group). The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the greater the non-pecuniary benefits the households receive, the greater the return probability of young and middle-aged women, and the greater the return elasticity. The findings provide some enlightenment for rural revitalization in China.