公交驾驶员违规类型同交通事故间的关联分析

Relational Analysis Between Bus Drivers'Violation Type and Traffic Accident

公交车驾驶员违规行为是引起交通事故的重要原因之一,以往文献在研究驾驶员违规行为与事故频率之间的关系时,未能深入探究违规行为类型差异及其异质性。为了进一步揭示不同违规行为的差异化影响并为行为管控措施提供依据,利用某市2019—2020年4532起公交违规及事故数据,将驾驶员事故频率作为研究对象,将17类违规行为及人口统计学因素作为解释变量,综合考虑数据特征及异质性分析需求,构建考虑均值与方差异质性的随机参数零膨胀泊松模型。模型分析结果表明:不同类型的违规行为对于驾驶员事故频率影响存在明显区别,当驾驶员同时存在若干特定违规行为时,事故频率明显高于其他驾驶员。具体包括:未走公交专用道等行为次数越多,则该驾驶员事故频率越高;未系安全带、未礼让斑马线次数和及时更换失效驾照等行为的影响具有随机特征,其作用效果具有随机波动的属性;未礼让斑马线行为影响参数的均值和方差受到其他变量的影响,即当驾驶员未礼让斑马线次数和越线行驶次数均较多时,期望事故率愈高。

Bus drivers'violating behavior is one of the important causes of traffic crashes.Previous studies have considered the relationship between driving violations and crash frequency,but failed to distinguish the types of violations and consider the heterogeneity.To reveal the differentiated impact of different violations and then provide a theoretical basis for behavior control measures,using the data of 4532 bus-involved violations and crashes in a city,the bus drivers'crash frequency in the accidents was focused on.Besides,17 violating behaviors and demography factors were taken as explanatory variables.Based on the data characteristics and heterogeneity analysis,the random parameter zero-inflated Poisson model with heterogeneity in means and variances is established.The results indicated that different types of violating behaviors showed a significant difference in crash frequency.When drivers had several specific violating behaviors,the crash frequency was significantly increased.Specifically,not driving on bus lanes and other behaviors were associated with high crash frequency.The parameters of variables such as not wearing a seat belt,not yielding to pedestrians,and updating the expired license timely have random characteristics,indicating that its effect has the attribute of random fluctuation.In addition,the random parameter of not yielding to pedestrians shows that heterogeneity not observed in the data may appear in the mean and variance of the parameters.When the times of drivers pressing the line and not traveling on the bus lanes increased,the impact on the crash frequency would be more obvious.