中国对东南亚国家直接投资的政治效应

The Political Effect of China’s Direct Investment in Southeast Asian Countries

推进国际区域经济合作是改善全球治理的重要方式。高质量的国际区域经济合作不仅能使参与国从经济上受益,也对其社会发展和国家治理起着积极的推动作用。区域经济合作产生的政治效应是国际政治经济学关注的理论问题。作者基于东南亚8个国家的微观调查数据,分析了来自中国的外商直接投资(FDI)和其他经济社会因素如何影响东道国民众对中国的正面感知。实证分析结果表明,东道国民众关于中国在当地产生积极影响的感知受到中国在东道国FDI数量的非单调影响,只有FDI的数量保持在恰当范围内才能使东道国民众关于中国影响力的正面感知处于较高水平。此外,东道国民众对投资来源国的正面感知也与个人经历、教育水平等因素密切相关。由此可见,来自中国的FDI数量在一定范围内可以影响东道国民众对中国的正面感知,但并非越多越好;同时,在国际经济合作中需要关注东道国的民生福祉及其民众的真实获得感,获得感是反映合作质量的重要维度。只有多管齐下、全面深化合作,才能不断推动区域经济合作的高质量发展。

Promoting international economic cooperation is an important way to improve global governance. High-quality international economic cooperation not only benefits the participating countries economically, but also plays a positive role in promoting their social development and domestic governance. The political effect of regional economic cooperation is a theoretical issue in international political economy. Based on microsurvey data from eight countries in Southeast Asia, the authors analyze how China’s outward foreign direct investment and other economic and social factors shape people’s positive perception of China in the host countries. We find that the positive perception in host countries about China’s impact on the local area is affected non-monotonically by China’s OFDI. Only when the quantity of direct investment keeps within an appropriate range can the positive perception of influence stay at a high level. At the same time,the perception of influence is also significantly affected by factors such as personal experience and education level. Our findings have broad implications for promoting high-quality international regional economic cooperation in the new era. On the one hand,the amount of China’s direct investment within a certain range can affect the host country’s positive perception of China,but its impact may not be monotonic;on the other hand, it is important to pay attention to the well-being and subjective feeling of the people in the host countries in the process of international economic cooperation. Public perception of the home country reflects the quality of cooperation.Only by comprehensively deepening cooperation through multi-channels can we continuously promote the high-quality development of regional economic cooperation.