稳增长与防风险权衡下的宏观政策——宏观政策评价报告2022

Macro Policies under the Balance between Stable Growth and Risk Prevention——Macro Policy Evaluation Report 2022

2021年中国经济持续恢复、稳中有进,但也面临一定下行压力,需要不断完善与创新宏观调控方式,从而保证经济平稳运行。本报告从“政策目标设定的合理性”“政策整体效果”“政策力度”“政策传导效率”“政策空间”“预期管理”“政策协调性”七大维度对2021年中国宏观政策及其效果进行系统评价。总体上看,2021年中国宏观调控的目标设定合理,而且通过跨周期调节与逆周期调节的有机结合,既保证了政策空间的充裕度,又在经济稳定与金融稳定方面取得了较好成绩。不过,宏观调控也存在一定的改善空间。一是货币政策与财政政策的力度应有所加大,从而更好地熨平负向的产出缺口与潜在增速缺口。二是宏观政策的传导效率需进一步提升,从而促使宏观政策“稳健有效”。三是在实施中国特色预期管理的同时,可进一步加强货币政策预期管理。四是宏观政策协调性有待加强,要实现宏观政策“三策合一”,从而更好地应对经济的“三重压力”。这些举措将有助于2022年宏观政策更好地稳定宏观经济大盘,保持经济运行在合理区间。

In the post-epidemic period,China’s economy has continued to recover and make steady progress,but it also faces some downward pressure.It is necessary to constantly improve macro policies to ensure the steady growth of China’s economy.This report systematically evaluates macro policy operations and their effects in 2021 from seven dimensions:“the rationality of policy target setting”,“overall policy effect”,“policy intensity”,“policy transmission efficiency”,“policy space”,“expectation management”and“policy coordination”.China’s macro policy target for 2021 is reasonable in general.Through the combination of cross-cyclical adjustment and counter-cyclical adjustment,macro policy has not only guaranteed sufficient policy space,but also achieved sound results in economic and financial stability.However,there is still room for improvement.Firstly,monetary and fiscal policies should be strengthened to eliminate the negative output gap and potential growth gap.Secondly,the transmission efficiency of macro policies still needs to be further improved.Thirdly,while the expectation management with Chinese characteristics plays an important role,the expectation management of monetary policy can be further strengthened.Fourthly,macroeconomic policy coordination needs to be strengthened.We need to integrate macro policies into one to better cope with the“triple pressures”on the China’s economy.These improvements will help macro policies in 2022 better stabilize the China’s economy and keep economic growth within a reasonable range.