数字普惠金融与生育:促进还是挤出?

Digital Inclusive Finance and Crude Birth Rate:Promote or Crowding-out?

基于家庭资源配置的视角,结合数字普惠金融的“长尾”特征,提出数字普惠金融会影响生育水平并进行了实证检验。结果显示,数字普惠金融总体上显著地提高了出生率,但细分维度存在差异:数字支付和数字保险都提高了出生率;数字信贷降低了出生率;数字理财的作用不明显。机制检验发现,数字支付主要通过促进家庭从外部获得帮助、缓解流动性约束来影响生育,社会资本水平越高,数字支付对生育的促进作用越大;数字保险通过为家庭提供补充保障来促进生育,社会保障水平越低,尤其社会保障深度不足时,数字保险的作用越大;数字信贷则由于刺激家庭消费对生育产生了“挤出”效应,银行消费贷款规模越小、快递量越大,数字信贷的生育抑制作用越大。因此,我国应重视并充分发挥数字普惠金融在促进人口长期均衡发展中的作用。

From the perspective of household resource allocation,based on the long-tail characteristics of digital inclusive finance,this paper proposes that digital inclusive finance could affect the fertility level.After empirical tests,authors of the paper find that digital inclusive finance has significantly increased the birth rate in general,but its subdivisions have different effect:both digital payment and digital insurance have increased the birth rate;however digital credit has reduced the birth rate;and the effect of digital investment is not obvious.Through the mechanism test,authors found that digital payment mainly affects fertility by facilitating the family to obtain external help and reducing migration;the higher the level of social capital is,the greater the role of digital payment in promoting fertility will be;whereas the lower the level of social security is,especially when the depth of social security is insufficient,the greater the role of digital insurance will be because digital insurance promotes fertility by providing supplementary assurance for families;due to the crowding-out effect of stimulating household consumption,digital credit reduces fertility;the smaller the scale of bank consumer loans is and the greater the volume of delivery is,the greater suppression effect of digital credit will be on fertility.Therefore,it crucial to give full play to the role of digital inclusive finance in promoting the long-term balance of the population development.