考虑灾民心理的应急物资分配演化博弈研究

Research on Evolutionary Game of Emergency Material Allocation Considering the Psychology of Disaster Victims

为保证应急物资分配的高效性与合理性,使分配方案更符合实际,综合考虑动态物资需求、运输时间以及物资短缺情况下灾民的心理,引入前景理论刻画送达时间满意度、引入不公平厌恶理论刻画分配公平满意度,构造基于满意度的应急物资分配方案博弈收益函数,建立考虑灾民心理的应急物资分配演化博弈模型;通过模型得出演化均衡方案,并分析风险态度系数、不公平厌恶系数以及比例公平系数对演化均衡方案及满意度的影响.结果表明:考虑灾民心理的应急物资分配演化博弈模型能兼顾灾情的动态性及灾民的有限理性博弈心理,使决策结果更符合实际;灾民的风险态度、不公平厌恶程度及对方案公平“主观性”和“客观性”的偏好程度会在一定范围内对方案产生影响.

In order to ensure the efficiency and rationality of the emergency material allocation,and to make the scheme more practical,the dynamic materials demand,transportation time and the psychology of the disaster victims in the situation of material shortage have been considered.The prospect theory is introduced to describe the delivery time satisfaction,while the inequity aversion theory is introduced to describe the fairness of the emergency material allocation.The payment function of the emergency material allocation scheme based on satisfaction was constructed,and an evolutionary game model of the emergency material allocation considering the psychology of disaster victims has been established.The evolutionary equilibrium scheme was obtained,and the impact of the risk attitude coefficient,inequity aversion coefficient and proportional fairness coefficient on the scheme and satisfaction were analyzed.The results show that the model can take the dynamics of the disaster situation and the bounded rational game psychology of the disaster victims into account,so that the decision results are more consistent with the reality.The disaster victims’risk attitude,the degree of inequity aversion,and the preference degree for"subjectivity"and"objectivity"of the scheme fairness will affect the scheme within a certain range.