装备性能单边检验原假设确定方法研究

Research on Determining Method of Original Hypothesis for Unilateral Test of Equipment Performance

传统装备性能单边检验以装备性能达到要求为原假设,装备性能未达到要求为备择假设。以显著性检验原理为工具,经过理论的逻辑分析和实际的检验计算发现,在装备性能显著性检验中,原假设和备择假设的地位是不对等的,检验结果偏向于接受原假设,即偏向于接受装备性能达到要求。这样往往会高估装备性能而产生不可挽回的严重后果。建议武器装备性能单边检验应采取稳健策略,将装备性能未达到要求作为原假设,装备性能达到要求为备择假设,以降低犯高估装备性能错误的概率。

Traditional unilateral test of equipment performance takes the equipment performance meeting the requirements as the original hypothesis, and the equipment performance which does not meet the requirements as the alternative hypothesis.This paper uses the principle of significance testing as a tool, after theoretical logical analysis and actual test calculations, it is found that in the equipment performance significance test, the status of the original hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are not equal, and the test results are biased towards accepting the original hypothesis.That is, it is biased to accept that the performance of the equipment meets the requirements.This tends to overestimate the performance of the equipment and produce irreparable and serious consequences.It is suggested that the unilateral test of weapon equipment performance should adopt a robust strategy, taking the equipment performance which does not meet the requirements as the original hypothesis, and the equipment performance meeting the requirements as the alternative hypothesis, so as to reduce the probability of making mistakes in overestimating the equipment performance.