旅游发展对我国产业结构升级的影响——基于中介效应、调节效应分析

Impact of Tourism Development on the Industrial Structure Upgrading in China:An Analysis of Based on Intermediary Effect and Moderating Effect

以旅游业存在价值与功能指向为出发点,对旅游发展与产业结构升级的关联效应及作用机制进行分析和阐述,并基于2000-2019年省级面板数据,使用中介效应模型和调节效应模型进行实证检验。结果发现:从整体来看,旅游发展对我国产业结构升级具有正向促进作用;从中介效应来看,“就业效应”“资本效应”在旅游发展促进产业结构升级中存在部分中介作用;从调节效应来看,“城镇化效应”在旅游发展与产业结构升级中主要发挥正向调节作用,而“环境效应”则表现为显著的负向调节作用。此外,基于四大板块、五大经济带区域异质性分析,旅游发展对产业结构升级的影响因地区发展水平差异而有所不同。文章实证结果为经济高质量发展和区域间产业协同发展提供了决策参考。

Starting from the existence value and function orientation of tourism industry,this paper analyzes and expounds the relevance effect and operating mechanism between tourism development and industrial structure upgrading.Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019 in China,intermediary effect model and moderat⁃ing effect model are used as the empirical test method.The results show:From the overall perspective,tourism devel⁃opment generates positive impact on the industrial structure upgrading in China;from the perspective of intermedi⁃ary effect,“employment effect”and“capital effect”play a partial intermediary effect on tourism development promoting industrial structure upgrading;from the perspective of the moderating effect,“urbanization effect”mainly plays a positive moderating effect in tourism development and industrial structure upgrading,while“envi⁃ronmental effect”has a significant negative moderating effect.In addition,the regional heterogeneity analysis among four plates and five economic belts in China indicates that the impact of tourism development on the industri⁃al structure upgrading varies with the regional development level.The empirical results provide reference for the high-quality economic development and inter-regional industrial collaborative development.