经济政策不确定性、投资者情绪与企业创新

The Uncertainty of Economic Policy,Investors′Sentiment and Enterprise Innovation

以中国A股上市公司2010—2019年的数据为研究样本建立回归模型,分析经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响,以及投资者情绪是否在经济政策不确定性和企业创新之间发挥中介效应。实证研究结果表明:经济政策不确定性的上升显著抑制企业创新;投资者情绪在经济政策不确定性与企业创新之间发挥中介效应。进一步的分析发现,投资者情绪在财政政策不确定性、货币政策不确定性、贸易政策不确定性与企业创新之间发挥中介效应,在资本与汇率政策不确定性和企业创新之间则不存在中介效应。该结论揭示了经济政策不确定性通过投资者情绪对企业创新的作用机制,有助于从投资主体角度理解宏观经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响。

Taking the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as the research sample,a regression model is established to analyze the impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on enterprise innovation and whether investors′sentiment plays a mediating effect between the uncertainty of economic policy and enterprise innovation.The empirical research results show that the rise of economic policy uncertainty significantly inhibits enterprise innovation;investors′sentiment plays a mediating effect between the uncertainty of economic policy and enterprise innovation.Further analysis shows that investors′sentiment played a mediating effect between fiscal policy uncertainty,monetary policy uncertainty,trade policy uncertainty and enterprise innovation,while there is no mediating effect between the uncertainty of capital and exchange rate policy and enterprise innovation.This conclusion reveals the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation through investors′sentiment,which helps to understand the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation from the perspective of investment subjects.