新型智库推动战略研究方法手段创新与运用的探索思考

Exploration and Analysis on Promoting the Innovation and Application of Strategic Research Methods and Means for New Types of Think Tank

[目的/意义]中国特色新型智库建设深入推进,亟须把先进战略研究方法手段自主创新与运用作为一项基础性工程,为新型智库形成优良战略研究模式,实现上升发展和走向世界提供坚实支撑。[方法/过程]本文运用演化分析、对比分析方法,梳理智库定性和定量战略研究方法的发展趋势以及国外发展情况,结合对我国战略研究方法的创新与运用现状的认识,从思辨方法、系统分析、数据资源、试验推演、智能辅助等方面,提出新型智库推动战略研究方法手段创新与运用的若干建议。[结果/结论]我国新型智库建设要传承发挥辩证分析、调查研究经典方法优势,深入推动系统分析、优化决策自主创新,加快数据资源、战略推演等建设发展,积极探索人工智能、群智决策服务战略研究。

[Purpose/significance]With the deepening of the construction of new types of think tank with Chinese characteristics,it is urgent to take the independent innovation and application of advanced strategic research methods as a basic project,which will provide solid support for the new types of think tank to form excellent strategic research models,realize their rising development and go to the world.[Method/process]With the methods of evolutionary analysis and comparative analysis,developping status and trends of qualitative and quantitative strategic research methods of think tanks are surveyed.Combined with the understanding of the current situation of the innovation and application of strategic research methods and means in China,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to promote innovation and application of strategic research methods by new types of think tank from the aspects of speculative methods,system analysis,data resources,experimental deduction and intelligent assistance.[Result/conclusion]The results show that the construction of new think tanks in China should inherit and give play to the advantages of classical methods of dialectical analysis and investigation,further promote systematic analysis and optimize independent innovation of decision-making,accelerate the construction and development of data resources and strategic deduction,and actively explore the strategic research of artificial intelligence and swarm intelligence decision-making services.