天然气管道地区等级升级后的风险评价方法研究

ON RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR NATURAL GAS PIPELINES AFTER REGIONAL GRADE UPGRADING

随着管道沿线经济发展和人口增长,在役管道局部地区等级升级,天然气管道地区等级升级后的风险评价采用三级评价模式。一级评价为数据收集及合规性验证,通过评价确定地区等级升级后管段采取降压运行、换管还是做进一步评价。二级评价为风险识别和风险等级确定,通过检查管道运行历史,风险点失效历史及风险控制、预防和缓解措施的采用情况,确定通过完整性评价、监测和缓解措施可以控制的风险及应进行三级评价的第三方破坏和外腐蚀等主要风险。三级评价为针对主要风险的定量评价。分析了定量风险评价的方法和风险接受准则,并研究了不同风险缓解措施对风险水平的控制效果。

With the economic development and population growth along the pipelines and local area upgrades of in-service pipelines,a three-level assessment mode is used for risk assessment of natural gas pipelines after the regional grade upgrading.The first level of the as-sessment is data collection and compliance verification,through which it is determined whether the pipeline section is to be operated at reduced pressure,replaced or further evaluated after the regional grade upgrading.The second level of the assessment is risk identification and risk level determination.By examining the pipeline operation history,risk point failure history,and the use of risk control,prevention and mitigation measures,the risks that can be controlled through integrity evaluation,monitoring and mitigation measures are determined,and the main risks such as third party damage and ex-ternal corrosion that should be evaluated in the third level.The third level of the assessment is a quantitative evaluation of the major risks.It analyzes the methods of quantitative risk evaluation and risk acceptance criteria,and studies the effects of different risk mitigation mea-sures on the control of risk levels.