京津冀协同发展战略实施效果中期评估

The Policy Mid-term Effect Evaluation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Strategy

采用双重差分法,通过实验组和对照组的结果对比,以2015年为政策起点对京津冀协同发展战略实施以来北京非首都功能疏解、生态环境协同治理、交通一体化发展及产业协同发展四个重点领域的政策中期效应进行定量评估。结果表明,京津冀协同发展战略对北京常住人口规模下降产生了较明显的作用,有效改善了京津冀三地的环境质量,促进了三地交通一体化发展,但尚未对产业协同发展产生明显影响。这与政府推动的京津冀协同发展战略导向和京津冀偏低的市场化水平有关。京津冀协同发展要取得更加明显的效果,建设世界级城市群,需要有效提升河北的发展水平,从根本上缩小河北与北京、天津的发展差距;完善跨区域生态补偿机制,实现可持续的生态环境治理;建设轨道上的京津冀;提高市场化水平,发挥市场在产业协同发展中的决定性作用。

Using the Difference-in-Difference Method, taking 2015 as the policy starting point, by comparing the results of the experimental group and the control group, this paper quantitatively evaluates the policy mid-eerm effect in four key areas as Beijing’s non-capital function redistribution, coordinated management of ecological environment, integrated development of transportation and coordinated development of industries since the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy implement. The results show that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy has a significant effect on the Beijing’s resident population reduction, improving the environmental quality effectively and promoting the transportation integration of the Beijing-TianjinHebei, but it has no significant impact on the industrial integration. This is related to the strategic orientation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development promoted by the government and the low marketization level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development to achieve more obvious results and to build a world-class city cluster, it is necessary to upgrade the development level of Hebei effectively, narrowing the development gap between Hebei and Beijing and Tianjin fundamentally, improving the cross-regional ecocompensation mechanism to achieve ecological and environment governance sustainable;constructing the BeijingHebei-Tianjin rail system;raising the marketization level and playing decisive role of the market in the coordinated industrial development.