创新投入、产业结构升级与碳排放的关系研究——基于长江经济带省域的实证分析

Research on the Relationship among Innovation Investment, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions——An Empirical Analysis based on the Provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

为探究长江经济带省域创新投入、产业结构升级与碳排放之间的内在关联效应,文章基于2000—2019年的地区面板数据,通过构建PVAR模型和脉冲响应函数考察三者的动态关系,并利用方差分解法得到变量的结构贡献度。结果表明:长江经济带创新投入和产业结构高级化之间存在双向促进关系,其中创新投入对产业结构高级化的贡献度更强;产业结构高级化和碳排放之间也存在着双向关联,从长期看产业结构高级化对抑制碳排放的贡献度在逐渐增加;碳排放与创新投入之间存在“倒U型”关系,短期内碳排放倒逼创新投入,但长期仍然会抑制创新活动。基于研究结论提出促进长江经济带低碳减排,实现地区绿色循环发展的对策建议:(1)提高创新投入转换效率;(2)制定区域整体规划;(3)促进产业融合发展。

In order to explore the internal correlation effect among innovation investment,industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions in the provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,based on the regional panel data from 2000 to 2019,the article investigates the dynamic relationship among the three by constructing PVAR model and impulse response function,and obtains the structural contribution of variables by applying variance decomposition method.The results show as follows:There is a two-way promotion relationship between innovation investment and industrial structure upgrading in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and innovation investment has stronger contribution to the upgrading of industrial structure;There is also a two-way correlation between the industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions.In the long term,the contribution of the industrial structure upgrading to curb the carbon emissions is gradually increasing;There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between carbon emissions and innovation investment.Carbon emissions encourage innovation investment in the short term,but it will still curb innovation activities in the long term.Based on these research conclusions,the article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote low carbon and emissions reduction in the Yangtze River economic belt and realize regional green circular development:(1) improve the conversion efficiency of innovation investment;(2) formulate comprehensive regional planning;(3) promote industrial integration and development.