基于VAR模型的农村养老产业发展影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Rural Elderly Care Industry Development Based on VAR Model

基于2003-2019年中国农村养老服务机构单位数、农村居民现金收入、退耕还林面积、农村卫生人员数建立多变量向量自回归模型,并运用Eviews11软件对模型进行一系列数值分析。结果表明,农村居民收入水平会对农村地区养老服务业的发展产生直接影响,而土地政策、农村医疗卫生条件则通过影响农村居民收入间接影响农村养老机构发展。农村居民收入对农村养老服务业发展的贡献率最大,农村医疗卫生条件对农村养老服务业发展的贡献率最小。

Based on the number of units of rural elderly care service institutions,cash income of rural residents,area of returning farmland to forest and number of rural health personnel in china from 2003 to 2019,a multivariable vector autoregressive model is established,and a series of numerical analysis is carried out by using eviews 11 software.The results show that the income level of rural residents will have a direct impact on the development of pension services in rural areas,while land policy and and rural medical and health conditions indirectly affect the development of rural pension institutions by affecting the income of rural residents.Rural residents’income contributes the most to the development of rural elderly care service industry,and rural medical and health conditions contribute the least to the development of rural elderly care service industry.