中国天然气安全形势的动态特征及传导机制

Dynamic characteristics and transmission mechanism of China’s natural gas security situation

中国天然气安全综合指标体系的搭建以及指数测算对于实时监测天然气安全形势、警惕天然气潜在风险、保障能源安全具有重要的现实价值.文章创新性地引入DMA-TVP-FAVAR模型以动态视角构建了中国天然气安全综合指数(NGSI),并结合EEMD和BP多重断点检验方法系统梳理了NGSI的动态特征和传导机制.研究表明:2001年以来,NGSI呈现波动下降的趋势.具体来看,短期不均衡因素主要引起NGSI短期波动,重大事件冲击是驱动NGSI中期波动的主要力量,天然气供需基本面是NGSI的长期内在趋势.此外,不同的货币政策工具对NGSI的调控效果不同,价格型货币政策比数量型货币政策更为有效.

Building the index system of China’s natural gas security and measuring the index have important meanings for on-line monitoring of natural gas safety,vigilance against potential risks of natural gas and guarantee of energy security.This paper innovatively applies the DMA-TVP-FAVAR model to build China’s natural gas security comprehensive index(NGSI)from a dynamic perspective and systematically reviews its dynamic characteristics and transmission mechanism combined with the EEMD method and BP structure breaks test.The main conclusions are as follows:Since 2001,NGSI has shown a wavelike decrease.Specifically,short-term unbalanced factors mainly cause short-term fluctuation of NGSI,the effects of significant events are the main driving force for medium-term fluctuation of NGSI,and natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are the long-term inherent trend of NGSI.Besides,different monetary policy tools have different efficiency on NGSI,and price-based monetary policy instruments are more effective than quantitative monetary policy instruments.