读懂2022年能源运输行业9个关键词

The nine keywords for 2022 energy transportation industry

美国原油出口在疫情影响下呈现一定程度下滑,但下滑幅度不大,预计2022年将保持稳步回升态势。2021年,美国出口至整个亚洲地区的原油占比由2020年的44.9%提高至47.4%,预示着2022年美国-亚洲航线原油出口仍将继续为长距离吨海里运输需求提供支撑。预计2021-2026年全球LNG吨海里运输需求将以8.1%的年均复合增速增长超过3万亿吨海里。2022年,国际原油市场需求端带来的支撑力度或弱于2021年,但供应端影响将有所加强。重大地缘政治事件对油气贸易格局、能源转型等造成的影响则是长远的、隐性的,将对全球能源行业带来深刻变革。随着中国节能减排力度增大,叠加发展新能源、多能代油、可再生能源占比增加等,预计未来中国原油进口增速将继续呈现逐年放缓趋势。一旦美伊重新达成核协议,那么伊朗原油将重新回归,届时将对油市产生影响。欧美等发达国家炼能将逐步萎缩,抑制长期石油贸易增长,中、印和中东等地区炼化产能扩张将带来新的运输需求。

U.S.crude oil exports have declined to some extent under the impact of the epidemic,but the decline is not significant,and it is expected to maintain a steady recovery in 2022.In 2021,the share of U.S.crude oil exports to the entire Asia region will increase to 47.4%from 44.9%in 2020,indicating that U.S.-Asia crude oil exports will continue to support the demand for long-distance ton-mile transportation in 2022.It is estimated that the global LNG ton-nautical mile transportation demand will grow by more than 3 trillion ton-nautical miles at a compound annual growth rate of 8.1%from 2021 to 2026.In 2022,the support from the demand side of the international crude oil market may be weaker than that from 2021,but the impact from the supply side will be strengthened.Russian crude oil production and exports play a significant role in global crude oil supply.Escalation of the conflict will increase the volatility of global energy prices,global inflationary pressure,and many commodity prices,including oil,will see a large backwardation.With the increase of energy conservation and emission reduction in China and the increase of the proportion of new energy,multi-energy oil and renewable energy,it is expected that the growth rate of China's crude oil import will continue to slow down year by year in the future.Once the U.S.and Iran reach a new nuclear deal,Iranian crude oil will return,which will have an impact on the oil market.Developed countries such as Europe and the United States will gradually shrink their refining capacity,which will restrain the long-term growth of oil trade.Expansion of refining capacity in China,India and the Middle East will bring new transportation demand.