基于加权马氏距离型TOPSIS算法的10kV配电网雷害风险评估

Lightning Risk Assessment of 10 kV Distribution Line Based on TOPSIS Algorithm Improved by Weighted Mahalanobis Distance

10 kV配电网架空线路绝缘水平较低,雷雨天气下雷击跳闸事故频发,由于大规模线路结构模型较为复杂等原因,基于雷击跳闸率等物理模型的风险评估方法在电网层面较难实现。同时,配电网缺少监测装置,人工记录的方式致使数据质量欠佳,严重影响模型计算的准确性。提出一种10 kV配电网雷害风险评估方法,基于线路运行、气象环境等多维数据,可在低质量数据条件下进行大规模配电网线路雷害风险评估。以线路所在地理网格为评估单元,从气象、线路走廊环境及线路本体特征参数3个维度提取10项配电网架空线路雷击跳闸风险指标,并量化风险指标以及雷击跳闸风险计算规则,使用加权马氏距离型TOPSIS算法构建10 kV配电网雷害风险评估体系,对风险进行分级。利用广州市10 kV配电网架空线路历史跳闸统计数据对风险评估结果进行验证,证明了评估方法的有效性。

The insulation of overhead line in 10 kV distribution network is unsatisfied and lightning tripping accidents occur frequently in thunderstorm weather.Due to the complexity of large-scale line model construction,it is difficult to realize the risk assessment at the grid level based on physical model,such as lightning tripping rate.Besides,due to the lack of monitoring devices in the distribution network,the data quality is undesirable,which seriously affects the calculation accuracy of the model.In this paper,a lightning risk assessment method for 10 kV distribution network was proposed.Based on multi-dimensional data such as line operation,and meteorological environment information,the lightning assessment for large-scale distribution network lines was carried out under the condition of low quality data.Setting the geographical grid as evaluation unit,this paper extracted ten lightning-strike risk indexes from three dimensions,including meteorological,corridor environment,and characteristic parameters of line.Then TOPSIS algorithm improved by weighted Mahalanobis distance was used to build the lightning risk assessment system of 10 kV distribution network,and the risk was scaled.Finally,risk assessment results were verified by historical trip statistics in Guangzhou 10 kV distribution network,and the effectiveness of the assessment method was proved.