基于向量自回归模型的碳排放强度影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Intensity Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

碳排放对全球气候变化有重要影响,探究碳排放强度与产业结构升级、能源强度、能源加工转换效率及经济增长的关联性有利于制定碳减排政策,发展低碳经济。通过采用向量自回归模型,运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证研究了我国碳排放强度与产业结构升级、能源强度、能源加工转换效率及经济增长之间的关系。研究发现:碳排放强度与各影响因素之间有长期均衡关系;产业结构升级和能源加工转换效率的提高会抑制碳排放强度的增加,而能源强度的提高和经济的增长则会促进碳排放强度的上升;产业结构升级和经济增长对碳排放强度的冲击与能源强度和能源加工转换效率相比,有一定的波动性和持久性,二者的贡献度也较大。基于实证结果,从促进产业结构调整、转变经济发展方式、提高能源加工转换效率等方面提出碳减排策略。

Carbon emissions have an important impact on global climate change.It is beneficial to formulate carbon emission reduction policies and promote the development of low-carbon economy to explore the correlation between carbon emission intensity and industrial structure upgrading,energy intensity,energy processing and conversion efficiency and economic growth.Based on the vector autoregressive model,Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to empirically study the relationship between carbon emission intensity and industrial structure upgrading,energy intensity,energy processing and conversion efficiency,and economic growth.The study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emission intensity and various influencing factors.Industrial structure upgrading and energy processing and conversion efficiency have a restraining effect on carbon emission intensity.Compared with energy intensity and energy processing and conversion efficiency,the impact of industrial structure upgrading and economic growth on carbon emission has a certain degree of volatility and persistence,and the contribution of both is also greater.Based on the above research results,it is proposed some carbon emission reduction strategies in terms of promoting industrial structure adjustment,transforming economic development methods,and improving energy processing and conversion efficiency.