长距离引水工程运行安全风险关联分析及风险传递研究

Study on Risk Correlation Analysis and Risk Transmission of Long-distance Water Diversion Project

为保证长距离引水工程运行安全,在考虑风险因素相互影响的基础上,运用决策实验室分析法和解释结构模型(DEMATEL-ISM)构建了长距离引水工程运行安全风险关联关系模型;基于风险熵及事故系统风险传递理论建立了长距离引水工程运行安全风险传递模型。以南水北调中线工程为例,分析了风险因素的关联关系和传递关系。结果表明:洪涝灾害、冰冻灾害和水源地水污染风险的原因度最大,属于本质致因风险,影响整个系统的风险因素;交通事故和突发个体事故风险与其他风险关联度较小。利用Arena软件建立了南水北调中线工程运行安全风险动态传递模型,并分析了风险传递规律。结果表明:风险涌现均值越大,节点风险处置能力越高,风险传递的可能性越小;提高节点风险处置速率,可显著提高系统风险处置能力。

In order to ensure the operation safety of long-distance water diversion project,on the basis of considering the interaction of risk factors,the correlation model of operation safety risk of long-distance water diversion project is constructed by using decision laboratory analysis method and interpretive structure model(DEMATEL-ISM).Based on risk entropy and accident system risk transfer theory,the operation safety risk transfer model of long-distance diversion project is established.Taking the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project as an example,the correlation and transmission relationship of risk factors are analyzed.The results are as follows.Flood disaster,freezing disaster and water pollution risk in water source areas have the greatest cause degree,which belong to essential cause risk and risk factors affecting the whole system.The risk of traffic accidents and sudden individual accidents has little correlation with other risks.The dynamic transmission model of operation safety risk of t the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project is established by using Arena software,and the law of risk transmission is analyzed.The results are as follows.The greater the mean value of risk emergence,the higher the risk disposal ability of nodes,and the smaller the possibility of risk transmission.Increasing the node risk disposal rate can significantly improve the system risk disposal ability.