东道国经济政策不确定性对企业OFDI的影响研究——基于中国企业大型投资数据库的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Host Country.s Economic Policy Uncertainty on Enterprise OFDI——Based on Empirical Evidence From the Large-scale Investment Database of Chinese Companies

本文采用2005~2020年微观企业层面的数据,实证研究了东道国经济政策不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。结果发现:(1)东道国经济政策不确定性与中国企业OFDI的投资意愿和投资规模显著负相关,并且降低了中国企业OFDI的成功率;(2)东道国经济政策不确定性对企业对外直接投资的影响有明显的异质性,投资于不同行业、不同经济体、不同投资方式以及不同所有制的企业对东道国经济政策不确定性的反应各异;(3)机制检验结果发现,东道国经济政策不确定性主要通过扩展边际而非集约边际抑制企业的对外直接投资;(4)金融危机后尤其是近几年“逆全球化”的逐渐显现下,东道国经济政策不确定性对企业对外直接投资的抑制作用更为明显。本文最后给出4个方面的政策建议。

This article uses micro-enterprise-level data from 2005 to 2020 to empirically study the impact of host country economic policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises. outward direct investment(OFDI). The results find:(1)the host country.s economic policy uncertainty is significantly negatively correlated with the investment willingness and investment scale of Chinese enterprises. OFDI,reducing the success rate of Chinese enterprises. OFDI.(2)The economic policy uncertainty of the host country has apparent heterogeneity in the impact of the foreign direct investment of enterprises. Enterprises investing in different industries,economies,investment methods,and ownerships respond to the host country.s economic policy uncertainty different.(3)The results of the mechanism test find that the host country.s economic policy uncertainty mainly suppresses the foreign direct investment of enterprises through the expansion of the margin rather than the intensive margin.(4)After the financial crisis,especially with the gradual emergence of“reverse globalization”in recent years,the host country.s economic policy uncertainty has had a more apparent inhibitory effect on enterprises. foreign direct investment. At the end of the article,four policy recommendations are given.