黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合机理及协调发展时空演变

Coupling mechanism of water-energy-food and spatiotemporal evolution of coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域面临的水、能源和粮食问题非常突出,研究黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展有助于推动黄河流域的生态保护和高质量发展。本文首先分析黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展机理,构建相应的耦合协调发展评价指标体系;在此基础上,运用耦合协调度模型测算了2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展状况,并分析其时间和空间演变特征;最后,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对其耦合协调发展状况进行模拟。结果表明:①2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食基本处于稳定的高水平耦合状态,2010年由初级协调转变为中级协调,2018年由中级协调转变为良好协调。②省区间的耦合协调发展水平差异较大,宁夏仅为勉强协调,河南、陕西和甘肃为初级协调,山西、内蒙古、山东和青海为中级协调。③2019—2023年除陕西外,其余各省区水-能源-粮食耦合协调度预计将呈缓慢上升的趋势。本文根据各省区的水-能源-粮食耦合协调特征提出了相应的政策建议。

The issues of water, energy, and food in the Yellow River Basin are particularly prominent. Research on the coordinated development of water-energy-food(WEF) coupling is helpful for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin. This study first analyzed the mechanism of WEF coupling and coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin, then constructed the corresponding evaluation indicator system of coupling and coordinated development. Based on that, the coupling and coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling and coordinated development status of WEF in the basin during 2008-2018 and analyze the characteristics of its temporal and spatial changes. Finally, the grey prediction GM(1, 1) model was used to simulate the coupling and coordinated development of the Yellow River Basin. The results show that:(1) Generally, the WEF systems of the Yellow River Basin were in a stable highlevel coupling state in the study period, changing from primary coordination to intermediate coordination in 2010, and from intermediate coordination to good coordination in 2018.(2) The development level of coupling and coordination is quite different spatially. Ningxia is barely coordinated. Henan, Shaanxi, and Gansu Provinces are in the primary coordination category.Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Qinghai are in the intermediate coordination category.(3)From 2019 to 2023, except for Shaanxi Province, other provinces and autonomous regions are expected to show a slow upward trend. This article also put forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the coupling and coordination characteristics of WEF in various provinces and autonomous regions of the Yellow River Basin.