“双循环”格局下新疆居民消费与经济增长动态关系

Dynamic Relationship Between Residential Consumption and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Under the Pattern of“Double Circul-ation”

在“双循环”新发展格局下,研究了新疆居民消费与经济发展的协调促进关系.以人均地区生产总值作为新疆经济增长指标,农村家庭和城镇家庭平均每人全年消费性支出作为新疆居民消费指标,选用1997-2018年的时间序列数据,基于VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解探究新疆城乡居民消费与地区经济增长的长期动态关系.研究显示:新疆居民消费与地区经济增长之间存在一定程度的相互促进作用;地区经济增长对新疆居民消费的促进效果较弱;农村居民消费和城镇居民消费对经济的促进作用,前者大于后者,进一步根据分析结果给出了相关政策建议.

Under the new development pattern of“double cycle”,this paper studies the coordination and promotion relationship between residential consumption and economic development in Xinjiang.Per capita gross regional product is taken as the economic growth index of Xinjiang.The annual consumption expenditure per capita of rural households and the annual consumption expenditure per capita of urban households are the consumption indexes of residents in Xinjiang.Using annual time series data from 1997 to 2018 and based on VAR model,this paper analyzes the long-term dynamic relationship between residential consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang through Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that there is a certain degree of mutual promotion between household consumption and economic growth.The effect of economic growth on residential consumption is weak.Rural residential consumption and urban residential consumption promote the economy,the former is greater than the latter.Based on the analysis results,relevant policy suggestions are given.