大宗商品价格趋势变化与市场预期

Changes in commodity price trends and market expectations

大宗商品价格指数的变化引起广泛关注。本文对2020年1月至2021年12月的CRB指数走势进行分析,2020年4-10月呈现出大幅上涨的走势;从2021年的10月中旬开始,CRB指数呈现出震荡回落的走势。根据CRB指数走势,可以发现市场预期开始转弱。大宗商品铜的价格走势也说明此问题。本文据此进行其原因分析,并对未来经济走势进行预判。

Changes in commodity price indices have attracted widespread attention.This article analyzes the trend of the CRB index from January 2020 to December 2021,showing a sharp upward trend from April to October 2020;from mid-October 2021,the CRB index shows a trend of shock and fall.According to the trend of the CRB index,it can be found that market expectations have begun to weaken.Commodity copper price action also illustrates the problem.Based on this,this paper analyzes the reasons and predicts the future economic trend.