中国因素对国际铜定价的影响研究——基于变结构Granger模型的实证分析

The Impact of Chinese Factors on International Copper Price——mpirical research based on variable structure Granger model

研究中国因素对国际铜价的影响,对新发展格局下提升重要大宗商品价格国际影响力具有重要意义。本文基于变结构Granger模型,考察了中国因素引起国际铜供需结构变化及其对国际铜价波动的影响。实证结果显示:中国因素是国际铜价的Granger原因,中国因素异常变化在国际铜定价中的作用显著,中国铜产量的异常增加将抑制国际铜价的上升。同时,中国铜进口量的增加将会对国际铜价产生推升作用;中国铜消费量异常变化对国际铜价的影响效应具有不对称性,消费增加的影响效应远高于消费下降的影响效应。

It is of great significance to study the impact of Chinese factors on international copper prices for enhancing the China’s international influence on important commodity prices under the new development pattern.Using variable structure Granger model,this paper investigates the changes in the international copper supply and demand structure caused by Chinese factors and its impact on the fluctuation of international copper price.The empirical results show that the Chinese factors are the Granger cause of the international copper price.The abnormal increase in China’s copper production restrains the rise of the international copper price,and the increase in China’s copper imports pushes up the international copper price.Besides,the effect of abnormal changes in China’s copper consumption on the international copper price is asymmetric,and the impact of increased consumption is much higher than that of declining consumption.