老龄化对农业种植结构的影响及其影响机制:基于对文献的分析

The Effect of Population Aging on the Agricultural Planting Structure and Its Influencing Mechanism:Based on Literature Analysis

我国不断深化的人口老龄化引发的劳动要素对农业生产的制约日益增强与显化,对农业的生产结构、生产方式产生了重大影响。为探明老龄化与农业种植结构之间的关系及其影响机制,基于对文献的系统梳理与分析,归纳出两者之间经验关系的一般规律,并解构其具体影响路径与作用渠道;进而基于中国实践,总结其中所蕴含的研究结论与政策启示。研究发现:老龄化正在潜移默化地改变着农业种植结构,其突出表现为对经济作物种植可能的抑制效应以及对粮食作物种植可能的促进效应;且缘于不同作物种植在机械化水平、劳动投入等方面的差异,老龄化对不同经济作物、粮食作物的种植可能存在截然相反的影响,其影响路径主要包括“体能效应”、“时间效应”、“经验效应”和“技术阻碍效应”。未来此领域的研究应综合考虑老龄化程度、作物类型和机械化水平等特征,选择代表性的研究区域,加强对老龄化影响农业种植结构具体路径的识别检验以及对老龄化环境效应的分析。政府宜加快推进对适合丘陵地区与山区、符合老年人劳作特征的机械与技术的研发与推广。

With the evolvement of population aging in China,the restriction of labor factors on agricultural production is increasingly enhanced and manifested,which has an important impact on the structure and mode of agricultural production.In order to explore the relationship between population aging and the agricultural planting structure and its influencing mechanism,this paper,based on a systematic review and analysis of relevant literatures,summarized general rules of the relationship between the two,explained the specific influencing paths,and then summed up conclusions of studies as well as policy implications based on China’s practice.Results show that aging is imperceptibly changing the agricultural planting structure,which is mainly reflected in its possible inhibition effect on economic crops and its possible promotion effect on food crops.Population aging may have utterly different effects on various economic or food crops due to different in mechanization levels and labor input of different crops.Its influencing paths mainly include “physical effect”,“time effect”,“experience effect” and “technology hindrance effect”.It was suggested that future research in this field consider the degree of population aging,crop types and mechanization levels,and select representative areas to study,in order to strengthen analysis of the environmental effects of aging as well as identification and testing of the influencing paths.The government should develop and promote machinery and technologies suitable for hilly and mountainous areas and in line with the working modes of the elderly.