旅游城镇化与社会治理协同发展时空格局及趋势预测——以张家界市为例

Spatio-temporal Pattern and Trend Prediction of Coordinated Development of Tourism Urbanization and Social Governance: A Case Study of Zhangjiajie City

利用耦合模型、重心-标准差椭圆及障碍度等方法,分析2009—2020年张家界市旅游城镇化与社会治理协同发展关系及时空格局,构建修正后的灰色马尔科夫模型,对未来十年旅游城镇化与社会治理耦合协调度进行精准预测。结果表明:(1)2009—2020年张家界市旅游城镇化水平呈先上升后下降态势,而社会治理综合发展水平则呈现较小波动变化特征,增速相对弱后于旅游城镇化水平。(2)旅游城镇化与社会治理的耦合协调度呈先上升后下降态势,经历了“一般失调—勉强协调—初级协调—良好协调—初级协调”的耦合类型转变过程,旅游城镇化超前型特征明显;从空间分异看,旅游城镇化与社会治理耦合协调度在东西和南北方向上是先扩大再收缩的态势,表现向武陵源区集聚的发展特征。(3)旅游城镇化系统的障碍度小于社会治理系统,从指标障碍度平均值看,第三产业产值比重>第三产业就业人口比重>旅游收入占GDP比重>旅游人次>每万人口交通事故死亡率。(4)未来十年张家界市旅游城镇化与社会治理耦合协调度将持续上升,但在2026年会有所下降,最终在2028年会处于优质耦合协调阶段。

Using the coupling coordination model, center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse, spatial trend surface and modified grey Markov prediction model, this paper studies the spatial and temporal pattern and trend prediction of the coordinated development of tourism urbanization and social governance in Zhangjiajie city from 2009 to 2020.The followings are results we found.(1) The level of tourism urbanization in Zhangjiajie city first increased and then decreased from 2009 to 2020,while the comprehensive development level of social governance showed a small fluctuation, and the growth rate was relatively weak, which followed the development of tourism urbanization.(2) The degree of coupling coordination between tourism urbanization and social governance showed an upward trend at first and then a downward trend, and experienced a coupling type transformation process of general imbalance, bare coordination, primary coordination, good coordination and primary coordination, with obvious characteristics of advanced tourism urbanization.From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the coupling coordination degree between tourism urbanization and social governance firstly expands and then contracts in the east-west and north-south directions, showing the development trend of gathering in Wulingyuan District.(3) The obstacle degree of tourism urbanization system is less than that of social governance system.From the average index obstacle degree, the proportion of output value of tertiary industry, the proportion of employed population in tertiary industry, the proportion of tourism income to GDP,the number of tourists, and the traffic accident mortality per 10,000 people shows a declining order.(4) In the next ten years, the coupling coordination degree between tourism urbanization and social governance in Zhangjiajie City will continue to rise, but it will decline in 2026,and finally it will be in the stage of high-quality coupling coordination in 2028.