美国“国会暴乱”事件情报预警失误成因及启示

Study on the Causes and Enlightenment of the Intelligence Early-Warning Failures of the Jan.6 Capitol Riot in U.S.

[研究目的]通过对2021年1月6日发生的美国“国会暴乱”事件中的情报失误进行归因分析,为我国情报体制改革与完善提供经验与助力。[研究方法]综合利用开源信息、文献资料和案例分析,借用层次分析的范式自上而下搭建分析框架,对“国会暴乱”事件中美国情报机构的事前预警及事中反应进行还原与深入剖析。[研究结论]发现“国会暴乱”情报预警失误成因更多源于国家情报文化、情报体制与决策层干预三个层面,技术因素占比相对较低。今后在情报工作中应当注重构建开放、协作、自省的情报文化;加强对权力的制约和监督,避免情报政治化负效应;下沉话语权,使权力和资源向基层倾斜。

[Research purpose]Through the attribution analysis of intelligence failures of the"Capitol riot"on January 6,2021 in the United States,the present author tries to provide useful suggestions to the reform and improvement of China's intelligence system.[Research method]Open-source information,literature review and case analysis found the basis of the paper.Moreover,the present author constructed a multi-layer analysis framework top-down borrowed from the hierarchical analysis paradigm,and with the help of which,the present author tried to further analyse the intelligence preparation as well as the reactions afterwards of the whole intelligence community and the law-enforcement forces by tracing back the details of the attack.[Research conclusion]It is found that the causes of the failure of intelligence early warning in this case are mainly reflected in three parts:national intelligence culture,the national intelligence system and intervention from the decision-makers,while the technical factors are relatively non-significant.Therefore,it is imperative to construct an open,cooperative and introspective intelligence culture;to strengthen the restriction and supervision of power;and to make sure grass-roots are privileged as to power and resources.