产业结构升级与经济高质量发展的互动关系研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

A Study of Interaction Between Industrial Structure Upgrading and High-Quality Economic Development-An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

本研究基于新发展理念,选取2007年—2019年我国大陆31个省(区市)面板数据,构建VAR模型,探讨产业结构升级与经济高质量发展间的互动关系。结果表明:产业结构升级与经济高质量发展之间存在长期协整关系,两者相互促进;产业结构升级对经济高质量发展的正向冲击作用略小于经济高质量发展对产业结构升级的正向冲击作用;此外,随着时间的推移,产业结构升级对经济高质量发展的贡献率逐渐提高至20%左右,经济高质量发展对产业结构升级的贡献率逐渐提高至40%左右。今后的发展中,可着眼于产业结构升级的内涵,注重产业结构升级与经济高质量发展间的互动作用,以新发展理念为抓手,因地制宜优化产业结构,更好地推动经济高质量发展。

Based on new development philosophy,the panel data of 31 provinces(regions and cities)in China from 2007 to 2019 were selected,the relevant variables were calculated by using the global main component analysis method and the DEA Malmquist index method,and the VAR model was constructed,and the interaction between the upgrading of China's industrial structure and the high-quality development of the economy was explored through co-integration test,pulse response function and variance decomposition analysis.The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the upgrad⁃ing of industrial structure and the development of high-quality economy over time.The current effect coefficient of industrial structure upgrading lag 1 on high-quality economic development is 1.584897,the effect coefficient of industrial structure up⁃grading lag 1 is 0.058983,the positive impact of industrial structure upgrading on high-quality economic development is less than the positive impact of high-quality economic development on industrial structure upgrading,the contribution rate of indus⁃trial structure upgrading to high-quality economic development is raised to about 20%,and the contribution rate of high-quali⁃ty economic development to industrial structure upgrading is gradually increased to about 40%.Finally,according to the above research results,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.