大国博弈形势下中东欧国家与中国经贸合作方向分析

Analysis on China-CEE Countries' Economic and Trade Cooperation Under Great Power Games

中美关系的合作与对抗已经成为影响国际格局的发展趋势的重要因素,两个大国的博弈是否会对中东欧等国经贸发展产生影响?本文运用2009-2019年中国与中东欧19个国家的进出口相关数据经济总量、进出口贸易总量、人均收入、对外投资净流量等,以及2006-2015年中美经贸摩擦案例数量和周期,基于引力模型下的回归方程检验分析中美摩擦对中东欧经贸合作的影响结果。两者之间的相互影响关系。实证结果表明:中国与中东欧国家的经贸合作关系还是取决于双方经济总量的增长需求,中美间的摩擦目前并未有实证影响,“一带一路”政策也会积极推进了中国与中东欧国家的经济合作与双边贸易增长,双边进一步扩大合作能够改善中东欧国家整体收入水平。研究结果对中国与中东欧国家开展深度经贸合作关系的可能性提供了理论支持,证实了新国际分工格局下积极友好的政策关系能够促进国民经济和收入条件的改善及优化,中美贸易摩擦的确会对第三方贸易国家产生显著性有效影响。

Sino-US trade fiction has lasted for several years and has become the developing trend for the new international pattern.The game between two larger nations would affect CEE countries'trade conditions.This paper used panel data of economic aggregate,total volume of trade pattern,per capita income,and foreign investment net flow etc factors of China and CEE countries during the period of 2009-2019,also used the data of trade friction between China and United States from 2006 to 2015.Analyzed by gravity-model to measure the influences among these time periods,The results showed that the trade cooperation between China and CEE still depends on the economic gross growth on both sides,the friction between Sino-US has no significant influences,China would like to establish much stronger relationship with CEE countries,in additional,'One belt one road Initiative'promote the economic growth and trade amount between these nations positively,and improve the whole national income level.These results has supported the strategies that asking for depth and width economic cooperation with China,confirmed that positive and friendly policy can promote national economic and income level instead of protectionism.The Sino-US trade friction exactly has significant influences on the third trading partner,based on this perspective there are more extensive and useful research can do.