一种改进的SIR网络谣言传播预警模型研究

Research on the Early Warning Model of an Improved SIR Network Rumor Transmission

网络舆情的传播规律与传染病模型的传播很相似,利用改进的传染病SIR模型分析网络谣言传播,通过节点的易感、感染、免疫3种状态反映谣言的传播特性,建立微分方程,根据伯努利微分方程的通解公式,得到预测函数形式。采用Matlab软件,根据案例真实值,使用非线性参数拟合进行建模仿真,得到谣言传播量随时间变化的预测函数表达式。结果表明,网络谣言传播在上升阶段时,遵循SI模型的传播规律;在下降阶段时,遵循改进的SIR模型的传播规律。该模型能够进行网络谣言传播潜伏期的高峰值预测、扩散周期预测及影响舆情传播的指标因素分析等,为网络谣言预警研究提供思路。

The transmission rule of network public opinion is similar to the transmission of the infectious disease model.Therefore,the improved SIR model of the infectious disease is used to analyze the transmission of online rumors,and the characteristics of rumor transmission are reflected through the node s three states such as susceptibility,infection and immunity.The prediction function form is obtained by setting up differential equations,according to the general solution formula of Bernoulli differential equation.Based on the real value of the case,the formula of the prediction function of the rumor transmission over time is obtained with the help of nonlinear parameter fitting for modeling and simulation,and the use of Matlab software.The results show that the network rumor transmission follows the SI model in the ascending stage,while in the descending stage,it follows the transmission rule of the improved SIR model.This model can not only predict the peak value of the incubation period of online rumor transmission and the diffusion cycle,but analyze the index factors affecting the spread of public opinion,providing ideas for the study of early warning of network rumors.