人民币汇率变动影响企业跨国并购的微观机理及经验证据

The Micro Mechanism and Empirical Evidence of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

本文以2009—2019年中国A股上市公司数据为研究样本,实证分析了人民币汇率变动影响企业跨国并购的潜在特征,并重点分析了其中的内在机理。研究发现,人民币汇率升值有助于促进我国企业进行跨国并购,且人民币实际有效汇率每升值1单位标准差,企业跨国并购规模平均增加0.105单位标准差,研究结论在替换核心指标、改变参数估计方法和弱化内生性问题后保持稳健。人民币汇率升值促进企业跨国并购的效应在非连续并购、高行业竞争度企业中表现尤为明显。特别地,人民币实际有效汇率升值可以通过促进国际资本流入、提高市场竞争程度助推企业跨国并购。基于此,完善人民币汇率形成机制,稳慎推进人民币国际化并维持人民币汇率水平的基本稳定对于助力国内国际双循环格局的形成具有重要的理论启示和现实意义。

With the continuous advancement of China’s opening-up, the impact of variations in RMB exchange rate on cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&A) between firms becomes manifest. Meanwhile, because of gradual improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the direction and range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations are more flexible and the bidirectional fluctuation characteristics of RMB exchange rate are also becoming increasingly obvious. Based on it,this study aims to provide a feasible interpretation for firms’ cross-border M&A behaviors from the perspective of exchange rate variations.Employing the data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2019, this paper analyzes the potential characteristics and internal mechanism of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on cross-border M&A. We find that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can promote Chinese firms to engage in cross-border M&A, and when the exchange rate increases by 1 standard deviation, the cross-border M&A increases by 0.105 standard deviation on average. The effect is more prominent in discontinuous M&A and firms with high industry competition. In particular, the RMB exchange rate appreciation stimulates cross-border M&A mainly through promoting international capital inflow and improving firm market competition.The marginal contributions of this paper are twofold. Firstly, different from the existing studies, this paper suggests that international capital flow and market competition are the potential channels of exchange rate variations affecting the crossborder M&A, and finds that the effect of the market competition channel is dominant. As such, this study enriches the study of the transmission of exchange rate variations on firm cross-border M&A. Secondly, we construct a quasi-natural experiment by employing the“8·11”exchange rate reform in 2015 as an exogenous shock, and further confirm the positive impact of the RMB exchange rate variations on cross-border M&A. This provides reliable empirical evidence that stabilizing the RMB exchange rate helps to promote the cross-border M&A behavior of Chinese firms.