非金融企业杠杆率与区域经济高质量发展的非线性关系研究——基于结构性去杠杆视角

Leverage Ratio of Non-Financial Enterprises and High-Quality Development of Regional Economy——From the Perspective of Structural Deleveraging

基于结构性去杠杆的视角,本文将2004—2018年沪深A股上市企业与中国各省级行政单位经济高质量发展指标相匹配,实证检验非金融企业杠杆率与经济高质量发展的关系及其背后可能的调节因素。本文研究发现,非金融企业杠杆率与经济高质量发展之间存在倒U型的非线性关系,且存在合理阈值;上市企业的所在区域、所有权性质的差异会明显影响杠杆率合理阈值的分布;进一步研究发现,全要素生产率与投资规模在非金融企业杠杆率与区域经济高质量发展关系之间发挥明显的调节作用。上述结论在替换关键变量、削弱内生性问题后依旧稳健。本文研究结论具有一定的政策启示,为合理安排不同区域、不同所有权性质的企业杠杆率调控政策提供重要参考。

From the perspective of structural deleveraging, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the relationship between enterprise leverage and economic growth, matches the high-quality economic development indicators of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed enterprises from 2004 to 2018, and empirically tests the relationship between non-financial enterprise leverage ratio and high-quality economic development as well as the possible regulatory factors behind it. It is found that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and high-quality economic development, and there is a reasonable threshold. The heterogeneity of regional characteristics and ownership attributes of listed enterprises will significantly affect the distribution of the reasonable threshold of leverage ratio. Further research shows that total factor productivity and investment scale play an obvious regulatory role in the relationship between leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and high-quality development of regional economy. The above conclusions remain robust after replacing key variables and weakening endogenous problems. The research conclusion of this paper has rich policy enlightenment, and provides an important reference for government departments to reasonably arrange enterprise leverage regulation policies in different regions and with different ownership attributes.