农户收入视角下我国农业巨灾风险准备金政策绩效评估

Performance Evaluation of China's Agricultural Catastrophe Risk Reserve Policy from the Perspective of Farmers Income

基于2002—2017年期间14个省级区域的面板数据,把实施农业巨灾风险准备金政策作为准自然试验,利用多期DID模型和DDD模型从农户收入的角度研究了省级层面的农业巨灾风险准备金政策绩效。研究结果表明该政策对农村居民人均纯收入和农村居民人均经营性收入都有一定的正向影响,且对非农收入影响较小,这证明我国农业巨灾风险准备金政策的实施是有针对性的、有效的。另外农业巨灾风险准备金政策还存在异质性,其中受灾程度更高的地区政策实施效果更好,中西部地区的政策实施效果要明显好于东部地区。

Based on the panel data of 14 provinces from 2002 to 2017,taking the implementation of agricultural catastrophe risk reserve policy as a quasi natural experiment,this paper studies the performance of agricultural catastrophe risk reserve policy at the provincial level from the perspective of farmers income by using multi-stage DID model and DDD model.The results show that the policy has a certain positive impact on the per capita net income of rural residents and the per capita operating income of rural residents,and has little impact on non-agricultural income,which proves that the implementation of China's agricultural catastrophe risk reserve policy is targeted and effective.In addition,the agricultural catastrophe risk reserve policy also has heterogeneity,in which the policy implementation effect is better in the areas with high disaster degree,and the policy implementation effect in the central and western regions is significantly better than that in the eastern region.