黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度研究

Study on coupling degree of water-energy-food system in the Yellow River basin

以黄河流域九省(区)为研究对象,基于水-能源-粮食(WEF)系统耦合发展理念,采用CRITIC赋权法,构建综合评价模型和耦合模型,评价黄河流域2005-2018年期间WEF系统的协调质量。结果显示:①黄河流域WEF系统的综合评价指数呈稳步上升趋势,其中水资源子系统和能源子系统的年平均增长率分别为0.81%和0.63%,在研究期内相对波动幅度较小;粮食子系统年平均增长率为2.59%,上涨幅度最大,波动幅度也最大。②2005-2018年黄河流域WEF系统的耦合度值均在0.95以上,且波动幅度较小,表明3个子系统之间联系非常紧密。③耦合协调度在研究期内由初级协调发展阶段过渡到了中级协调发展阶段,流域内不同区域也呈现出不同的特点:流域上游经济发展水平较弱,WEF系统协调发展水平较好,水资源子系统综合评价指数较高;相较于上游而言,流域中下游水资源与能源压力较大。

Based on the concept of WEF system coupling development,this paper takes nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River basin as the research object,and builds a comprehensive evaluation model and a coupling model with the CRITIC weight method to evaluate the coordination quality of WEF system in the Yellow River basin from 2005 to 2018.The results are as follows.First,the comprehensive evaluation index of WEF system in the Yellow River basin shows a steady upward trend within these years.The average annual growth rate of water resource subsystem and energy subsystem is 0.81%and 0.63%,respectively,and the relative fluctuation range is small during the study period.The average annual growth rate of grain subsystem is 2.59%,and is the largest increase and fluctuation.Second,the coupling degree of WEF system in the Yellow River basin within these years is above 0.95,and the fluctuation range is small,indicating that the three subsystems are closely related.Third,the coupling coordination degree improves from the primary level to the intermediate level during this period.Meanwhile,different regions in the basin also shows different features.The upper reaches is characterized by a low-level economy,a good coordinated WEF system,and a high comprehensive evaluation index of water resources.By comparison,the middle and lower reaches have more pressure on energy and water resources.