地震预警实质的探讨

Discussion on the essence of earthquake early warning

随着国家地震烈度速报与预警工程的开展,“地震预警”越来越进入公众的视线,国内外关于“什么是地震预警”的问题越来越多,对地震预警技术的解释也多种多样。本文论述了我国地震预警的进展,地震预警的实质和局限性。地震预警实质是地震观测进入密集观测新阶段,地震速报从分钟级发展到秒级超快地震速报,也就是地震警报。由于在地震预警实际应用中受预警盲区和地震强度估算不准确的局限,地震科学家对地震预警技术应用效能的认识也在不断加深和变化,逐步认识了发挥地震预警的警报作用的重要性。同时,地震预警是复杂的社会工程,引导公众认识地震预警的局限性,才能有效发挥减灾效能。

With the development of the national earthquake intensity quick report and early warning project,more and more“earthquake early warning(EEW)”has come into public view.There are more and more questions about“what is EEW”at home and abroad along with a variety of interpretations of EEW techniques.This paper discusses the progress of earthquake early warning in China,the essence and limitation of EEW.The essence of EEW is that the earthquake observation has entered a new stage of intensive observation,and EEW is the alert for application of earthquake quick report from minutes to seconds.Due to the limitations of early warning blind area and inaccurate estimation of earthquake intensity in the practical application of EEW,the understanding of earthquake scientists on the application efficiency of EEW technology has been deepened and changed.They gradually realized the importance of strengthening the alert function of EEW.At the same time,EEW is a complex social engineering.Scientists need to guide the public to understand the limitations of EEW in order to play the role of disaster reduction effectively.