基于Agent的手机银行品牌扩散微观模型及仿真研究

Research on micro-model and simulation of mobile banking brand diffusion based on Agent model

针对不同品牌手机银行产品的市场扩散问题,将消费者的采纳决策行为分解为品类采纳和品牌选择两个步骤.引入消费者异质性和产品特征差异,构建了基于Agent的品牌层面扩散仿真模型.基于产品多属性决策,分别从用户体验、安全性、个性化等方面对扩散趋势进行了多情景仿真实验.结果表明:用户体验和安全性的提升显著影响国有银行手机银行产品市场占比,国有银行应从细节入手全面提升产品质量;更具创新性的互联网银行产品的加入,将显著影响股份制银行手机银行产品市场占比,股份制银行需关注自身差异化的竞争优势,在产品设计中体现个性化和定制化.

In response to the market diffusion problem of different brands of mobile banking products,this paper decomposed the consumer’s adoption decision-making behavior into two steps:category adoption and brand selection.An agent-based brand level diffusion simulation model was built,considering consumer’s heterogeneity and product feature differences.Based on product multi-attribute decision-making,multi-scenario simulation experiments were conducted on the diffusion trend from the aspects of user experience,security,and personalization.The results show that,the improvement of user experience and security significantly affect market share of state-owned Banks in mobile banking,which indicates that state-owned banks should improve product quality from the details;and the introduction of more innovative mobile banking products significantly affects market share of joint-stock banks,hence,they should pay more attention to their differentiated competitive advantages,and reflect individualization and customization in product design.